Is There a Truck Driver Shortage in 2024?

Last Updated August 19, 2024

Trucking is a vital part of the American economy, making a national truck driver shortage a serious cause for concern. While 3.05 million truck drivers were employed in the U.S. in 2023, this is actually well below the number of drivers needed to fill all open positions within trucking companies. Quite simply, demand for truck drivers continues to outpace supply.

A driver shortage in the trucking industry can have wide-ranging impacts on the economy and the supply chain. Because of this, understanding why the current truck driver shortage exists (and how to solve it) is more important than ever.

Is There a Truck Driver Shortage?

Some sources argue that the truck driver shortage is a myth, citing increases in the number of trucking carriers in the United States. In fact, some even argue that there is too much trucking capacity in the United States and not enough freight to support it.

In reality, these numbers are missing key context. In 2023, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) cited driver shortages as the fourth biggest industry issue—with the notable addition of driver retention as the eighth-ranked issue in the trucking industry.

While there may not be a shortage of owner-operators, the trucking industry is facing a shortage in the number of total truck drivers, which is where the problems come from.

Truck Driver Shortage Statistics

How bad is the truck driver shortage in 2024? American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimates a shortage of roughly 60,000 drivers in today’s market, with the shortage expected to grow to 82,000 by the end of the year.

Trucking industry forecasts for 2025 indicate that the trends impacting the trucking industry in 2024 are unlikely to reverse anytime soon.
As a report by NPR notes, a key part of the CDL truck driver shortage is retention. There is a retention issue in the industry at large, with an average annual turnover rate for long-haul truckers above 90% at many big trucking companies. While there are plenty of drivers who have been trained for the job, a surprising number leave their company (and the industry) due to poor hours and pay.

Historic retention issues, combined with a number of other factors affecting the industry, are playing a key role in the current shortage.

Why Is There a Shortage of Truck Drivers?

There are several reasons for truck driver shortages in the United States. This brief truck driver shortage analysis provides an overview of some of the key concerns at play.

1. Aging Workforce

The average age of truck drivers is 46—much higher than the average age of other industries. This means that a large proportion of truck drivers are nearing retirement age or have recently retired. Without enough younger drivers entering the industry, the shortage of truck drivers is expected to grow. In fact, the ATA reports that the industry will need to hire 1.2 million new drivers in the next decade to account for the current aging workforce.

2. COVID-19 Pandemic

Asking “When did the truck driver shortage start?” is tricky, since shortages have been ongoing for a long time. However, current issues were certainly made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Some drivers were laid off from their jobs or chose to quit work because of health concerns. The pandemic caused many truckers to retire early or leave the industry when they might otherwise have continued driving for several more years.

3. Difficulty Attracting New Drivers

Another undeniable challenge for the trucking industry is its struggle to attract new drivers. Trucking has been perceived as a less desirable career choice due to its demanding nature—in particular, the extended hours away from home required by long-haul truckers. Many entry-level jobs are viewed as overworking truckers for relatively poor pay, which serves as a major deterrent for an already demanding job. It’s also worth noting that federal regulations require drivers to be 21 or older for interstate commercial driving, limiting opportunities for high school graduates to enter the industry right away.

4. Growth of E-Commerce

The growth of e-commerce (which also took off during the COVID-19 pandemic) is also having an impact on the trucking industry as a whole. High demand for efficient e-commerce delivery (including the need for last-mile delivery) attracts drivers to these jobs that may seem to offer better hours and make it easier to be home more often in comparison to long-haul trucking jobs.

Effects of the Truck Driver Shortage

An ongoing trucker shortage can have a widespread impact on the economy. Here are some of the most immediate challenges that could come from an unresolved shortage.

1. Supply Chain Shortages

A driver shortage in the trucking industry can make the supply chain much less efficient simply by not having enough drivers available to transport goods. Many businesses use just-in-time delivery to receive products or materials, and if drivers aren’t available to fill a truck load, delivery delays could result in a shortage almost immediately.

2. Higher Operational Costs for Trucking Companies

When there aren’t enough drivers available, trucking companies must invest additional funds in recruiting and training new drivers. While increasing driver wages to attract talent can be a good thing, the higher operational costs the companies face to fill open positions can put greater strain on their businesses and make it harder to turn a profit.

3. Manufacturing Issues

The trucking industry doesn’t just transport finished goods. It also transports raw materials that are used for manufacturing. Shipment delays can disrupt manufacturing activities, leading to additional product shortages and hurting the finances of affected companies.

4. Higher Consumer Prices

Supply chain inefficiencies inevitably raise prices for consumer goods as companies try to account for higher shipping rates, product shortages, and other related problems. Consumers may find themselves unable to afford certain items or needing to cut back on their spending due to price increases.

How to Solve the Truck Driver Shortage

While there are many concerning factors at play, truck driver shortage solutions are possible. One of the most important things the industry can do is improve working conditions for current drivers and make the field more attractive to new drivers. As part of this, a focus on increasing workforce diversity can dramatically increase the number of new drivers entering the industry.

Increased wages (both in per-mile rates as well as bonuses for good performance and weekend driving) and comprehensive benefits could actually help companies save money in the long run by improving retention rates.

Companies can also improve retention by improving working conditions—in particular, making it easier for drivers to be home most nights. Many in the industry view more widespread adaptation of less-than-truckload shipping as a key component for accomplishing this.

Truck companies can further incentivize new drivers by offering specialized training (or even help pay for training). Many in the industry are also advocating lowering the age requirement for interstate commercial driving to 18.

As more companies focus on these key areas, they can take important steps forward in minimizing the truck driver shortage.

In-Summary: The Nationwide Truck Driver Shortage

The truck driver shortage may be controversial in some areas, but it is a very real concern that could have a wide-ranging impact on the economy. With an aging workforce and difficulty attracting new drivers even as the demand for trucking grows, supply chain disruptions and higher costs for all are a likely outcome.

By improving wages and working conditions and making a concerted effort to attract new, diverse talent, the trucking industry can overcome these challenges.

Truck Driver Shortage FAQs

Is the truck driver shortage a myth?

No. While some argue that there isn’t a true shortage due to the number of owner-operators in the industry, there is a shortage in terms of the total number of truck drivers currently working. There are several underlying factors contributing to the shortage of truck drivers, including an aging workforce, high turnover rates, and trouble attracting new drivers to the industry.

When did the truck driver shortage start?

A lack of truckers has been a concern for quite some time, but current issues were worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which caused many truckers to leave the industry due to early retirement, health concerns, or other related reasons.

How bad is the truck driver shortage?

Demand for truckers far outpaces the available number of drivers. The ATA estimates that there is a current shortage of roughly 60,000 drivers, with long-haul trucking being the sector most severely affected.

How many truck drivers are needed in the U.S.?

Based on current rates of retirement and turnover among current drivers, the ATA estimates that 1.2 million new truck drivers will be needed in the next decade.

Why are so many truckers quitting their jobs?

Long-haul truckers have the highest turnover rates, typically due to tough working conditions and inadequate pay and benefits. Long-haul truckers are often required to be out on the road for extended periods, with few nights at home. Poor communication and support from the carrier, as well as excessive workloads and tight deadlines, can also make it harder for truckers to succeed in their roles.